Trading update : 11 September 2025

All signs point to a Fed rate cut, from a looming payroll downgrade that could wipe nearly a million jobs off the books to Wall Street gearing up to take advantage. Globally, France is in political chaos, again, and China is teeing up fresh stimulus. Big tech isn’t slowing down either, with Microsoft cutting billion-dollar deals, Nvidia unveiling its next-gen AI engine, and Oracle stacking up cloud bookings at record pace.

Payroll faux pas

Economists expect a preliminary benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US to show the March payrolls data was almost 800,000 less than currently estimated, or about 67,000 monthly on average. According to Bloomberg, some estimates suggest the downgrade could be closer to a million, indicating a weakening economy in serious need of rate cuts to stimulate growth.

Cut and run

Wall Street is betting big that the Federal Reserve will cut rates, with stocks running on speculation that policy easing at a time when the economy is not in a recession will keep powering Corporate America. Following a mild drop in the aftermath of weak jobs figures, the S&P 500 (VOO-NASQ) bounced. While upcoming data is projected to show progress on inflation has stalled, money markets continued to brace for almost three Fed reductions this year, starting in September. 

The pull back is coming!

While markets are rising on speculation of a rate cut by the Fed on September 17, JPMorgan’s trading desk warns that if the Fed follows through on the now widely expected rate cut, it could turn into a ‘Sell the News’ event as investors pull back.

Sacré bleu!

The political and economic crisis in France has deepened after French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou lost a motion of confidence vote in parliament, forcing a third change in government in just over a year. According to Bloomberg, President Emmanuel Macron will now have to decide whether to name a new premier or dissolve the National Assembly and call a new election. The new government would still have to find a way to pass a new budget and tackle France’s mounting debt burden, with the country’s deficit the widest in the euro area.

All in

Investors continued to pour cash into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that buy emerging markets stocks for a fourth consecutive week on expectations that the US Fed will start to cut interest rates. Bloomberg reported that inflows to US-listed emerging market ETFs totalled $1.02 billion in the week ending September 5, compared with gains of $109.7 million in the previous week. The trend was broad-based, with not a single country or region recording net outflows last week.

Joining the club

New inclusions into the S&P 500 (VOO-NASQ) saw their stock prices surge, with online trading platform Robinhood (HOOD-NASQ) surging +15.83% and AI-powered app platform AppLovin (APP-NASQ) jumping +11.59% when trading started.

China stimulus

According to a report published in the China Securities Journal and carried by Bloomberg, the Ministry of Commerce in China will introduce more policy measures to support service consumption this month. Measures will focus on opening up some Internet and culture sectors to foreign investors, including camping, home stays, property management and “Internet healthcare” services.

Powering growth

Microsoft (MSFT-NASQ) struck a $19.4 billion deal to get cloud computing power from AI infrastructure provider Nebius (NBIS-NASQ). The announcement sent Nebius shares skyrocketing.

Energy investment needed

Goldman Sachs predicts that electricity demand in Europe will grow 1.5-2% annually from 2026. According to Bloomberg, that trajectory would push reserve margins — a measure of the buffer in the system when power demand peaks — close to zero by 2029.

Revenue in the clouds

Oracle (ORCL-NASQ) reported a massive jump in bookings of future AI business for its cloud infrastructure unit. This secured business will feed through into future revenue, which leapt to $455 billion, up from only $138 billion three months ago.

AI creators 

Nvidia (NVDA-NASQ) has unveiled Rubin CPX, a new chip system for AI video and software creation, set to debut in late 2026.

Rinse and repeat

The latest iPhone launch from Apple (AAPL-NASQ) was a flop according to the market response, with the stock falling -1.5% following the announcement. The new iPhone is a bit thinner, uses Apple’s own chip, has a better camera, more storage and a longer battery life. Investors were clearly not impressed with the rinse and repeat strategy.

Class dismissed

BHP (BHPL-TRQX) has reached an agreement to settle the Australian Samarco shareholder class action, subject to approval by the Federal Court of Australia. Bloomberg reports that BHP has agreed to pay the applicants A$110 million, inclusive of interests and costs, with no admission of liability.

Tariff threats 

President Trump told European officials he’d impose sweeping tariffs on India and China to pressure Vladimir Putin, but only if the EU followed suit. The FT reported he urged the bloc to impose levies of up to 100%. The US president later posted he looks forward to speaking with his “good friend” Narendra Modi in the coming weeks.

Walmart to open in SA

Walmart (WMT-NASQ) plans to open its first branded stores in South Africa to gain a stronger foothold in a market it has struggled to dominate since first entering more than a decade ago. The world’s largest retailer said stores are already in development and will open by year-end, offering locals fresh groceries, household essentials, apparel and technology.

Stock focus: Growthpoint

Growthpoint (GRT-JSE) reported good numbers as property sector fundamentals continue to improve. The company’s core earnings (Distributable Income Per Share, or DIPS), were slightly better than expected, and the dividend per share (DPS) increased by 6.1%, beating analyst expectations. The company’s like-for-like Net Property Income (NPI), which measures income from the same properties year over year, grew by 5.9% in 2025. This is a big improvement from the 1.8% growth in 2024. Rental renewals turned positive for the first time since 2017, marking a significant positive change in the overall market and the company’s performance.