Trading update : 13 November 2025

Risk appetite roared back this week and the market gained momentum as Washington made a breakthrough in ending the record shutdown. Wall Street shook off its worries, which saw stocks and Bitcoin climbing in tandem. The rally was broad-based, lifting everything from beaten-down tech stocks to emerging market assets, with the rand catching a strong tailwind. There’s lots happening in the mining sector, with M&As, supply and demand dynamics, and tariffs all in the mix as miners look to capitalise.

Rushing to risk

Risk-on was the thrust at the start of the week as Wall Street traders rushed back into stocks, which climbed alongside Bitcoin as the US Senate advanced a plan to end the longest-ever government shutdown and remove a significant economic headwind. The risk-on bid lifted the S&P 500 (VOO-NASQ) by more than 1%, following its worst week in about a month. Tech shares, which had been hit the hardest, drove the rally in equities at the start of the week.

No honour among cards

In a move that could save merchants more than $200 billion, Visa (V-NASQ) and Mastercard (MA-NASQ) agreed to cut fees and do away with their “honour all cards” rule to let retailers reject premium credit cards. Reuters reports that the settlement calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which averaged 2.35% in 2024 and typically range from 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1%.

Shutdown EM shine

Emerging market stocks rose after investor risk appetite got a boost from US lawmakers’ progress toward ending the nation’s longest government shutdown. A measure of developing nation currencies traded 0.1% higher at the strongest level in a week, with the rand leading gains.

Softbank’s AI switcharoo

Nvidia (NVDA-NASQ) shares slid after SoftBank sold its stake for $5.83 billion to fund other AI investments, even as investors question the amount of capital pouring into a technology with uncertain returns. It also sold part of its stake in T-Mobile for $9.17 billion.

AI constraints

A Financial Times article quoting JP Morgan research puts the AI capex boom into stark figures. According to the report, the global data centre and AI build-out will be an extraordinary and sustained capital markets event, requiring between $5-7 trillion to build all the necessary data centre and AI infrastructure and related power supplies.

Beyond access to capital, data centre growth is also being constrained by real estate, energy and power, water, and commodity prices. Power is the most important of those constraints, with lead times for new natural gas turbines ballooning to 3-4 years, and nuclear plants have historically taken 10+ years to build. Even if everything works, there will be spectacular winners, and probably some equally spectacular losers, given the amount of capital involved and the winner-takes-all nature of portions of the AI ecosystem.

Argentine copper rush

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is trying to develop the country’s copper industry, which has significant untapped deposits, to diversify the economy and generate dollar revenue. Bloomberg reports that mining companies such as Glencore (GLNL-TRQX) and BHP Group (BHPL-TRQX) are developing projects in Argentina, which are slated to produce over a million tons of copper a year by 2035. Glencore, BHP Group and First Quantum are among those developing eight projects requiring some $26 billion in new investments, said Nicolás Muñoz, a mining expert at consulting firm CRU Group. Four of the world’s 12 biggest greenfield copper projects are located in Argentina, according to consulting firm Benchmark Minerals.

Weight-loss wars

Eli Lilly (LLY-NASQ) and Novo Nordisk struck a deal with the White House to trim prices on weight-loss drugs like Wegovy and Zepbound in exchange for expanded Medicare coverage for obesity. According to reports in the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg, the companies will offer discounts to the net price of their drugs, and in return, the administration will extend coverage under a government program for seniors, potentially opening up a market of about 30 million people. The deal is expected to have competitive ripple effects, pressuring future entrants like Pfizer (PFE-NASQ) and squeezing compounders that make knockoff versions of the drugs, while also potentially affecting prices in the commercial market.

 Aluminium exit

According to a Bloomberg report. Glencore (GLENL-TRQX) is seeking as much as $284.9 million from the sale of shares in Century Aluminum Co. via an unregistered overnight block trade, according to people familiar with the matter.

Diamond dealings

Botswana’s president reiterated his plan to acquire a majority stake in De Beers, as Anglo American Plc (AALL-TRQX) looks to offload its controlling interest in the company as part of a restructuring. Botswana, which owns the rest of the company, relies on diamonds for about 80% of its exports. Botswana faces competition for the De Beers stake from companies including Angola’s state-owned diamond producer Endiama EP and Namibia, which is weighing a bid for up to 15% of De Beers.

Upgraded!

Goldman Sachs expects an improvement in South Africa’s public finances to pave the way for a sovereign credit-rating upgrade – the first since 2000 – which would mark a significant milestone for the country, improving sentiment while signalling growing confidence in the country’s fiscal consolidation efforts. However, some economists expect any upgrade from S&P Global to only happen next year.

Sector focus: Aluminium

According to a BofA Securities analyst quoted by Bloomberg, Chinese aluminium stocks are undervalued as construction for data centres and other AI power equipment is fuelling demand for the metal. Aluminium-related stocks provide cheaper exposure to AI infrastructure growth, given they trade at significantly lower valuations than other equities benefiting from the current AI boom. Also, the price for aluminium delivered to the US hit a record high on Monday as inventories dwindle due to US tariffs. The US relies heavily on foreign supplies, with Canada being the nation’s largest aluminium supplier, and imports have slowed significantly since tariffs on the metal were introduced.

Stock focus: Shoprite

In an operational update for the quarter ended September 2025, Shoprite (SHP-JSE) showed it had a solid start to its financial year, with overall (Group) sales growing by 8.0% for the quarter ending September 2025. This puts them right on track to meet or slightly underperform the market’s full-year expectation of around 9.4% sales growth, which is still a very healthy number. This data is flashing “Buy” signals on this retailer’s stock with upside potential.