Trading update : 16 January 2026

Where 2025 marked an acceleration in spending, 2026 is proving to be the year of AI integration, and its consequences. While Big Tech is making moves with new alliances and strategic shifts to corner market segments, like AI wearables, the physical world is struggling to keep up. With power grids facing a supply crisis and the Trump administration tightening grip on Nvidia’s chip exports, the infrastructure behind AI is under immense pressure. Other sectors are also experiencing the ebbs and flows of the dynamic global market, with the US financial sector grappling with proposed regulations and cost cutting, while the precious metals market and mineral-rich countries like South Africa benefiting from continued tailwinds.

Trimming headcounts

As AI continues to transform sectors and companies look to cut costs, a host of US companies plan to reduce their headcount. In financial services, CitiGroup (C-NASQ) is set to eliminate about 1,000 jobs while BlackRock (BLK-NASQ) is trimming around 250 positions, totaling about 1% of its global headcount. Meta (META-NASQ) also plans to cut 10% of jobs in its Reality Labs division, which is part of a plan to redirect resources from virtual reality and metaverse products toward AI wearables and phone features.

Artificial additives

Google (GOOGL-NASQ) stock rose +1.09% after the company announced it has entered a multiyear deal with Apple (AAPL-NASQ) to use Gemini to power AI services, including Siri. Bloomberg previously reported in November that the deal is valued at about $1 billion a year.

Ship the chip

The Trump administration issued revised criteria for US government approval to ship Nvidia Corp.’s (NVDA-NASQ) H200 AI chips to Chinese buyers. Bloomberg reports that the Commerce Department will review applications for AI chip exports to China on a case-by-case basis, with licensing requirements including certifying no shortage of processors in the US. Companies seeking export approval must meet certain stipulations, including limiting chip shipments to China to no more than 50% of total products made for the US market and employing “rigorous Know Your Customer” procedures.

Credit crunch

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM-NASQ) warned that President Trump’s call for a 10% cap on credit card rates threatens to “significantly change” its business and would harm the bank and its customers. CFO Jeremy Barnum said that under that scenario, the card operation “would be a business that we would have to significantly change” and that “everything is on the table” in pushing back against the proposal. Industry groups said a 10% interest rate cap would be “devastating” for some consumers, reducing credit availability and harming millions of American families and small business owners who rely on credit cards.

US loadshedding?

America’s AI boom is pushing the nation’s largest power-grid operator to the brink of a supply crisis. The Wall Street Journal explained that the market operated by nonprofit PJM supplies 67 million people in a 13-state region stretching from New Jersey to Kentucky. Many AI data centres, which have a bottomless appetite for electricity, are springing up in Northern Virginia’s “Data Centre Alley”. According to the report, rates are going up for consumers.

Older power plants are going out of service faster than new ones can be built, and the grid’s capacity is in danger of maxing out during periods of high demand, which could force PJM to call for rolling blackouts during heat waves or deep freezes to avoid damaging grid infrastructure.

In related news, President Trump said his administration had been in talks with Microsoft (MSFT-NASQ) to ensure consumers “don’t pick up the tab” for enormous data centres.

China sitting pretty

China’s trade surplus climbed to $1.2 trillion in 2025, extending a record run as overseas shipments surprised with stronger growth at the end of the year. Exports increased 6.6% in December from a year earlier, growing at the fastest pace in three months, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 3.1% gain. Imports also jumped more than expected and rose 5.7%, leaving a surplus of $114 billion — the most in six months.

Go with the flow

Funds continue to flow into emerging markets. Money managers ploughed cash into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that buy emerging market stocks in the week ending 9 January at the fastest pace in over a year, underscoring the rising risk appetite across global markets. According to data shared by Bloomberg, inflows to US-listed emerging market ETFs that invest in equity across developing nations, as well as those that target specific countries, totalled $3.96 billion during the week, compared with gains of $1.1 billion in the previous week. Only $7.7 million was invested in fixed-income assets. This marked the 12th straight week of total inflows. So far this year, inflows have totalled $4.45 billion.

Global appeal

Strate data reveals that ownership in JSE-listed stocks by non-residents has increased in aggregate from 29.3% to 32.9%. However, non-residents have been selective about the sectors they are active in, despite an overall increase in ownership. This focus was concentrated in basic materials (mining and resources), which had the lion’s share of non-resident purchasing, increasing by 10.9% from 29.1% to 40.1% over the course of the year. Health care was on the other end of the scale, decreasing by 5.3% from 26.5% to 21.2% over 2025.

Waiting game

Mining giant BHP (BHPL-TRQX) is set to wait out Rio Tinto’s talks to take over Glencore (GLENL-TRQX). The deal would create the world’s largest mining company, knocking BHP from its position atop the mining pile. However, Reuters reported that BHP is apparently not currently planning a counterbid, as it does not perceive Glencore to be complementary to its business. Speaking to Bloomberg, Iain Pyle, senior investment director at Aberdeen Group Plc, which holds shares in Rio and BHP, said:

“If Rio combines with Glencore, and you’ve already got Anglo and Teck in play, BHP risks being left behind. There aren’t many other ways to gain copper scale.”

Rand rally

Soaring prices of precious metals, a major South African export, have helped to propel the rand to its strongest in more than three years. The currency ended 2025 nearly 13% stronger against the US dollar and is poised to clock another year of gains.

Sector focus: Precious metal

The latest precious metals appraisal from Heraeus, carried by Mining Weekly, found that platinum prices may soon retreat back to average levels, with the rally having become “stretched” by the end of December. The company reports that all the precious metals had spectacular price gains in 2025, with platinum and silver hitting new price records in December. It explains that there was some overlap in the price drivers for gold, silver and platinum group metals (PGM) as the threat of US tariffs led to unusually large flows of metal into US vaults, which impacted on liquidity elsewhere.

Heraeus expects the platinum market to experience a deficit in 2025, which will continue this year. The palladium and rhodium markets are, in turn, less tight than platinum. Surprisingly, valuations for miners suggest room for upside just to keep up with longer-term trends.

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index, which comprises precious metal producers from around the world, trades below its five-year average when measured on a price-to-expected earnings basis, despite a record run in 2025.