Trading update : 23 October 2025

All factors point to a sustained bull run, with robust global growth, subdued inflation, pending interest rate cuts, and a strong earnings season in the US suggesting the dynamics at play will support further gains, despite renewed US-China trade tensions.

5 reasons for a sustained bull run

Various drivers support the view that this bull market will remain intact and is not entering bubble territory: 

1. Robust global growth: The AI arms race will bolster the US economy due to its unwavering desire to win, regardless of the cost. This trend is driving the current capital expenditure (capex) cycle, alongside a booming mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market that looks set to continue into 2026. China also continues to diversify its economy well, and its consumer is rebounding off a low base.
2. Subdued inflation: Inflation remains subdued despite continued views to the contrary amid the tariff wars.
3. More cuts coming: Further interest rate cuts are expected amid an accelerating growth backdrop.
4. Legacy private equity and debt issues: These public equity counterparts are about to see their time in the sunand benefit from a seismic and sustained shift in institutional allocation.
5. Dollar weakness: A weaker US dollar, coupled with the hottest seasonal time of the year for equity market returns, makes for a bullish cocktail for risk assets.

Earnings tailwind

Wall Street traders drove stocks higher to start the week amid solid results from Corporate America, while tariff tensions between the world’s two largest economies cooled. About 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 (VOO-NASQ) have beaten earnings estimates, helping fuel a rebound in equities. The S&P 500 topped 6,700 as tech mega-caps climbed, with Apple (AAPL-NASQ) hitting its first record of 2025 as Loop Capital upgraded the stock to buy amid more positive iPhone demand. 

Hedge funds sell 

Global net selling of equities by hedge funds last week was the highest in more than six months, with disposals across every major region except for Europe, according to Goldman Sachs’ Prime Desk. Bloomberg reports that eight out of 11 global sectors were net sold, led by energy, industrials, health care and materials, according to the desk. Communication services, IT and consumer discretionary were net bought.

GM revs

General Motors (GM-NASQ) surged +14.86% – the biggest intraday advance since April 2020 – on solid numbers, despite the ongoing tariff concerns. The headline was a strong 7% year-on-year kick in US sales, with international sales up 9%. Unlike other auto OEMs, GM continue to push their EV offering. Company management reiterated their dominant position in pickups and SUVs, and also disclosed revenue from software services for the first time. GM now has 500,000 subscribers for Super Cruise, “a hands-free driver assistance technology that allows drivers to remove their hands from the wheel on compatible roads”.

US consumer bellwether

Capital One (COF-NASQ) rose +3.8% in after-hours trade following a big earnings beat, which stemmed from much lower-than-expected provisions for credit losses. This is important because the company is a massive credit card and subprime auto loan business, making it an important proxy for the health of the US consumer.

China flows reverse

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking China stocks recorded outflows for the second consecutive week as US President Trump stoked market jitters over a trade dispute with China. Multiple China ETFs saw withdrawals, according to Bloomberg data, but tensions have gradually eased, with President Trump saying he has a good relationship with the Chinese leader. However, traders remain uncertain over the upcoming trade talks.

Mineral mix

South32 (S32-JSE) said it produced more copper and manganese but less zinc quarter over quarter, and that it finalised insurance claims related to a cyclone that damaged its Australian manganese operations last year.

Fiscal state 

The state of South Africa’s public finances appears to be improving, with sustained spending discipline and improved revenue collection set to narrow the budget gap. Bloomberg reports that Fitch Ratings expects a modest narrowing of the deficit driven by a moderation of general public service and transfer expenditure, and sees a lower risk of contingent liabilities materialising.

Sector focus: Copper

Copper’s price floor is rising as power-grid upgrades, AI‑era electricity needs, defence and energy security collide with slowing mine growth. A Bloomberg article paints a compelling long-term bull case, but cautions that recent gains and tactical headwinds, such as global growth concerns made worse by renewed US-China trade frictions, mean prices will be more range-bound, requiring a more disciplined trading strategy. However, the overall industry consensus is that copper’s longer-term path remains upward, but the road would be bumpier given recent gains have already priced in much of the bull case.