Trading update : 30 October 2025

All the talk is about tech. Despite growing concerns of an AI bubble, the sector is buzzing with activity, with M&As, industry collabs, IPOs and strong earnings. Tech stocks continue to push the S&P500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs, with suggestions that the year-end rally could sustain the run. Tech is also a dominant theme in the local financial sector, with major announcements from big players as they buy into fintech and platform plays.

Get ready to rally

According to Citadel Securities’ Scott Rubner, the year-end rally is loading. Rubner says the US stock market appears primed to extend its record-setting run and may even accelerate its usual year-end gains.

The $5-trillion club

Nvidia (NVDA-NASQ) became the first company in history to top a $5 trillion market valuation after rising 3% following its latest earnings report. The AI juggernaut gained after CEO Jensen Huang dismissed AI bubble concerns and announced a flurry of new partnerships, including a $1 billion equity stake in Nokia, and collabs with Uber and Palantir. Nvidia is also set to unveil supply contracts with Samsung and Hyundai.

AI IPO

AI startup OpenAI is preparing to file for an initial public offering (IPO) as soon as next year, which could give the company a market capitalisation of $1 trillion, according to a Reuters report that cited unidentified sources. The news comes on the back of a deal with Microsoft (MSFT-NASQ), which now holds a 27% ownership stake worth about $135 billion – a more than 10-fold return on the $13 billion invested in OpenAI.

AI capex bonanza

Amazon (AMZN-NASQ) is setting aside another $5 billion for investment in South Korean data centres, sharply ramping up the spending it’s already devoting toward building AI infrastructure in the country. According to Bloomberg, the capital will go toward erecting several data centres between now and 2031. The spending comes on top of more than $4 billion of envisioned investment with partner SK Group announced in June. Bloomberg also reported that Blackstone is partnering with Humain to build data centres in Saudi Arabia with an initial investment of about $3 billion.

Chip competition

Qualcomm (QCOM-NASQ) surged 11% on news that the company is pivoting out of its traditional cell phone chip stronghold to compete head-on with Nvidia in AI accelerators.

US tech bear

Not everyone is sold on the US AI bull case. John Pearce, chief investment officer of UniSuper, was quoted in a Bloomberg article, saying that cheaper AI tools from China threaten to trigger a sudden sell-off in US tech giants betting on generative AI.

S&P concentration risk

Offering an instructive insight into the concentrated power of the mega-cap tech stocks, even after almost 400 components in the S&P 500 Index (VOO-NASQ) declined, the gauge gained 0.2% to close at an all-time high on the back of strong tech earnings.

Cut and hold

Adding tailwinds to US equity markets at record highs, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps in a widely expected move, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned investors against assuming another interest-rate cut in December, saying it’s “not a foregone conclusion”.

Spicy results

While other consumer staples struggle, Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP-NASQ) gained +7.62% after reporting double-digit organic net sales growth, with a 6.4% gain in volume growth the real kicker for the share price. Management reiterated their full-year guidance, and a deal with Appollo and KKR means a reduced debt burden for the acquisition of coffee business JDE Peet.

Copper comeback

Anglo American (AALL-TRQX) flagship copper mine in Chile is expected to return to normal output levels in 2027 after a period of lower-quality ore. Annual output at Collahuasi will probably get back to about 600,000 metric tons in 2027 as the operation enters richer areas of the open pit and a new desalination plant comes fully online. Collahuasi’s high-grade ore would be supplied to Teck’s neighbouring Quebrada Blanca mine, potentially adding 175,000 tons of copper a year and boosting profitability by an estimated $1.4 billion annually.

Costly cocoa

Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ-NASQ) cut its full-year outlook due to high cocoa prices and cautious consumers. Bloomberg reports that the cocoa company now sees organic sales growth rising 4% or more in 2025 and expects earnings per share to decline about 15%, deeper than the 10% decline it previously projected.

FirstRand fintech play

FirstRand (FSR-JSE) has reached an agreement with certain Optasia shareholders to acquire 20.1% of the fintech’s ordinary shares at R19/share in an off-market investment ahead of Optasia’s intended listing on the JSE.

Old Mutual to take control of 10X

Old Mutual (OMU-JSE) has proposed a R2.2 billion deal to take control of passive investment platform 10X Investments with an 85% stake. Old Mutual Private Equity and UK-based DiGAME will sell their stakes in 10X to Old Mutual, with 10X management retaining the remaining 15% stake in the business. !0x Investments has R68 billion in AUM and 35% retail flow share since 2022, which equates to 16% market share overall.

Sector outlook: Iron ore

Goldman Sachs raised its iron ore price forecast for 2026 to $93 a ton due to macroeconomic support, tighter inventories and resilient Chinese steel production. According to Bloomberg, the investment bank still expects iron ore prices to drop next year, falling to $88 a ton by the final quarter of 2026, as the Chinese steel sector has already returned to oversupply. Global iron ore shipments have increased 15% year-on-year so far this quarter, which will likely exacerbate the seasonal build in port stockpiles and keep inventories rising throughout 2026.