Trading update : 9 May 2025

As we approach the halfway mark of 2025, it’s time to start taking stock as tariffs, tech and trade tensions continue to dominate headlines. From buybacks to browser battles, Disney magic to Uber drag, and poultry pain to gold mine drama, the headlines reveal a market swinging between resilience and risk.

Taking stock

US assets have underperformed so far this year thanks to President Trump’s tariff policy and concerns over the possible removal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Several daily trading sessions have witnessed the unusual spectre of simultaneous selloffs in the S&P500, Treasuries and the US dollar. While markets have been volatile, they have not seen the dysfunction experienced in March 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic hit. If this remains the case, Investec analysts expect any market intervention by central banks to be targeted and ‘surgical’, not a ‘sledgehammer’ approach, like restarting quantitative easing (QE).

US buybacks coming

US companies are planning to buy back their own shares at a historic rate. Bloomberg reported that buybacks reached $233.8 billion in April, the second-highest monthly tally on record, which is generally good news for share prices.

Tariff trouble 

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-NASQ) said US restrictions on sales to China will cost the company $1.5 billion in revenue this year. The warning overshadowed an otherwise upbeat outlook, but shares still edged higher post-market in a sign of investor confidence.

Auto earnings hit the skids

Ford Motor Co. (F-NASQ) slammed brakes on its full-year financial guidance and said President Trump’s auto tariffs will likely take a $1.5 billion toll on earnings. The company’s total tariff impact is about $2.5 billion, $1 billion of which the company expects to offset through actions such as using so-called bonded transportation to shield parts from levies as they cross international borders.

Ride hailing hit

While largely seen as tariff-proof, Uber (UBER-NASQ) shares fell -2.5% after gross bookings missed expectations, with management blaming a drop-off in inbound travel into the US, as the company’s US travel business accounts for half of the company’s profitability. A stronger US dollar also impacted international revenues. Interestingly, Uber’s delivery business, which includes food and grocery orders, grew 15% compared to the 20% increase at Doordash.

Streaming success

Walt Disney (DIS-NASQ) got a +10.76% bump after a big beat on expected earnings and an upgrade to its full-year guidance, which was driven by the company’s theme parks and streaming service. While the streaming sector is likely headed for a period of consolidation due to fragmentation, the sector has surprised for the right reasons this quarter.

Browser battles

Alphabet (GOOGL-NASQ) shares sank -7.5% after Apple Inc. (AAPL-NASQ) said it is “actively looking at” revamping the Safari browser on its devices to focus on AI-powered search engines. The decision could impact the use of Google by Apple device users as Google pays $20 billion annually to secure the default search position on Apple’s browser. 

Peabody, Anglo deal in doubt

Peabody says it has notified Anglo American (AALL-TRQX) of a “material adverse change” impacting its planned acquisition of the company’s coal assets. The change relates to issues involving Moranbah North Mine, which remains inactive following a “gas ignition event” on March 31, and has created “significant uncertainty” around the $3.8 billion deal.

Golden partnership fizzles

Gold Fields (GFI-JSE) and AngloGold Ashanti (ANG-JSE) suspended talks about combining their Iduapriem and Tarkwa mines in Ghana. Bloomberg reported that the companies agreed to “pause discussions” to focus on improving their respective standalone operations. The proposed joint venture, which could have created the largest gold mine in Africa, could not secure permission from Ghana’s previous government and was not pursued further.

Moody’s cuts SA 2025 GDP 

Ratings agency Moody’s says tariff increases on countries and high sectoral tariffs on products such as steel and aluminium will weigh on global trade and investment decisions with considerably negative growth consequences for most G20 economies, including South Africa. As a consequence, the agency cut SA’s real GDP growth projections for 2025 to 1.5%, a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its February projection, and expects local inflation at 4% this year and 4.5% in 2026.

Sector focus: Healthcare

SA hospitals have started to lift their head after weakness this year, with both Life Healthcare (LHC-JSE) and Netcare (NTC-JSE) still underperforming the broader index. Netcare’s recent trading update was solid, while Life Healthcare plans to return net proceeds of $200 million to shareholders from the sale of Life Molecular Imaging within 12 months of the completion date, which would deliver an attractive yield. Momentum on both names remains positive, with further upside possible in the share prices.

Stock focus: Astral Foods Limited

In its most recent trading statement, Astral Foods Limited (ARL-JSE) revised down its previous headline earnings guidance, lowering its expected loss from a max of 60% to between 50% and 60%. The update suggests there is a bit more pain to come, but then lots of potential gain, as poultry prices continue to improve and input costs, which have already fallen a lot, continue to come down. Investors can expect earnings for the second half of the 2026/2027 financial year to improve.