Trading Update : 11 November 2024

The world’s best-known investor has a contrarian view on U.S. stocks. What does Buffett’s pivot to cash say about stocks, especially will dollar bulls charging among buy-and-hold investors following the election outcome?

Dollar on long-term bull outlook

Beyond election-related gyrations, there’s long-term bullish momentum building in the U.S. dollar among buy-and-hold investors, according to the Bloomberg MLIV Survey. Asset managers boosted their net long positions on the currency for a fourth straight week, CFTC data showed.

What Buffett’s pivot to cash says about stocks

Throughout 2024, the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, has been selling equities at a frantic pace and deploying most of the proceeds into Treasury bills, suggesting that the world’s best-known investor is preparing for a stock market correction. Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B-NASQ) has slashed its stock holdings by almost a quarter since the end of 2023 to about $272 billion – the lowest since 2020, when the pandemic wreaked global havoc. Meanwhile, the conglomerate’s cash holdings and near-cash instruments nearly doubled to $325 billion in September from $167 billion at the end of 2023, which is Berkshire’s highest ever reported cash position. A Bloomberg report highlighted multiple potential factors for the move, including signs that stocks may be getting ahead of themselves by ignoring signs of economic weakness, typical of late-cycle behaviour. US employers also expanded their payrolls at the smallest pace since 2020 in October, and manufacturing PMIs haven’t been above 50 for four successive months now. Buffett’s actions may suggest concern about rich valuations in the market. These lofty valuations may be setting up gullible investors for a correction should the economy enter a contraction.

Schroders takes institutional hit

Despite an acceptable net flow picture, Schroders (SDRL-TRQX) lost -13.7% following the investor response to news that the asset manager is losing $8 billion from a legacy Scottish Widows mandate and a further $2 billion from three other institutional clients. The business outlook dimmed significantly as a result.

Going up to BAT

A subsidiary linked to British American Tobacco (BTI-JSE) in the U.S., Reynolds American, was a large donor to the Make America Great Again Inc, or MAGA, super-political action committee. Reynolds has been battling the Biden administration’s proposed nationwide ban on menthol cigarettes. The measure was delayed earlier this year and Trump’s victory increases the likelihood that it will be permanently scrapped, reports the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg. Tobacco investors may also expect Trump to crack down on illicit imports of disposable vapes. These products, which mainly ship from China, have been the fastest-growing corner of the U.S. nicotine market. A ban could boost tobacco companies’ e-cigarette brands.

Tencent pushes deeper into AI-enabled smart driving

Tencent Holdings signed a deal with German automotive supplier Bosch to enhance collaboration in cloud computing and smart driving, as the majority Naspers-owned (NPN-JSE) Chinese tech giant looks to expand the adoption of its artificial intelligence (AI) services in the car industry.

Prosus and Naspers up buybacks

For the period between 28 October 2024 and 1 November 2024, Prosus (PRX-JSE) repurchased 3,714,714 shares at an average price of €39.4146 per share for a total consideration of €146,414,121 (US$158,665,225). For the period between 28 October 2024 and 1 November 2024, the group purchased 288,872 Naspers (NPN-JSE) shares at an average price of ZAR4,222.6632 per share for a total consideration of ZAR1,219,809,155 (US$69,075,011).

Murray & Roberts signals trouble

In a recent trading statement, Murray & Roberts (MUR-JSE) cautioned that earnings for 1H25 are expected to decrease by at least 20% compared to the same period in the last financial year, with no range given. Working capital constraints continue to weigh on operations, specifically OptiPower, and the company is in talks with banks regarding a working capital facility. Murray & Roberts has made progress on reducing its net debt positions, with the remaining R409 million debt quantum set to be paid in January 2026, funded largely by cost-saving initiatives and the disposal of non-core assets. De Beers is also re-looking its Venetia mine, which will have a material negative impact on the company’s SA cementation revenues.

Stock focus: Sibanye Stillwater

Sibanye Stillwater (SSW-JSE) jumped +10.15% following a production update that showed positive performance and a stabilisation in earnings losses on its U.S. PGM business at -US$6m in Q3FY24. The company also secured €500 million in green financing for the Keliber project, with no negative surprises on the horizon boosting the stock.

Information correct at time of publishing. It is important to conduct thorough research and analysis using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis techniques to make informed trading decisions. Additionally, consider your risk tolerance, investment objectives, and time horizon when assessing company performance for trading.

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